Statistical Prediction Algorithms for Nonlinear Stochastic Jump-diffusion Systems
Author(s):
Tatyana Averina
Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS
Novosibirsk state university, Computational mathematics department
ata@osmf.sscc.ru
Konstantin A. Rybakov
Moscow aviation institute (national research university),
Mathematical cybernetics department, associate professor
associate professor, candidate of physico-mathematical sciences
rkoffice@mail.ru
Abstract:
In this paper we discuss an evolution of the new approach
to the prediction problem for nonlinear stochastic differential
systems with a Poisson component. The proposed approach is based on
reducing the prediction problem to the analysis of stochastic
jump-diffusion systems with terminating and branching paths.
The solution of analysis problem can be found approximately by using
numerical methods for solving stochastic differential equations and
methods for modeling inhomogeneous Poisson flows.
Keywords
- branching processes
- conditional density
- Duncan-Mortensen-Zakai equation
- extrapolation
- Kolmogorov-Feller equation
- Monte Carlo method
- optimal filtering problem
- prediction problem
- statistical algorithm
- stochastic jump-diffusion system
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